Hot Fish pulls out of LA event; Blake advances

Tennis Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red-hot American Mardy Fish pulled out of the $700,000 Farmers Classic tennis event on Tuesday, citing fatigue and an ankle injury.

An eighth-seeded Fish was scheduled to meet German Benjamin Becker in an opening-round match Tuesday night, but was replaced in the draw by Giovanni Lapentti of Ecuador.

"Due to fatigue and a sprained ankle in Atlanta, I am not in good shape to play," Fish said. "I need to rest in order to compete at a high level."

Becker beat Lapentti, 7-5, 7-6 (8-6), in the final match of the night on the hardcourts at the Los Angeles Tennis Center.

Fish has won his last 10 matches, including two titles in his last two events. He titled on grass in Newport two weeks ago and was last week's big winner on the hardcourts in Atlanta, where he overtook 6-foot-9 fellow American John Isner in the final amid some oppressive heat.

The 28-year-old Fish suffered the ankle injury during his second-round match against fellow American Robby Ginepri last week.

American James Blake, the runner-up here in 2007, beat Argentine Leonardo Mayer, 6-1, 6-4. Blake is ranked No. 117, his lowest since the week of May 30, 2005 when he was No. 127. He came back in June after missing two months with a right knee injury and now has a second-round match against Becker.

Additional Day-2 wins came for South African Kevin Anderson, Ginepri and fellow Americans Tim Smyczek and Ryan Sweeting, Colombian Alejandro Falla and India's Somdev Devvarman.

This week's top seed is Australian Open runner-up Andy Murray. No. 2 seed and defending champion Sam Querrey, No. 3 Marcos Baghdatis of Cyprus and No. 6 Janko Tipsarevic of Serbia highlight Wednesdays second round action. Querrey, who bested Aussie Carsten Ball in last year's finale, will meet Anderson.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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