AL West: Angels hoping to make up ground

Baseball Betting Lines

05/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As we near the quarter-post of the Major League Baseball season, it's usually a good tipping point to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Although some may start slow, the true contenders won't be held down for long. Likewise, some of the weaker teams who start out hot will eventually come back down to Earth.

Fortunately for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (18-22), the American League West is still anybody's division. And entering play Monday, they had gained three games on first-place Texas in a span of three days. They were able to do so thanks to a three-game sweep over the Oakland Athletics at home this past weekend. Equally as important as the ground they made up, was the revival of a starting rotation that has been anything but consistent.

On Friday, Joe Saunders tossed a four-hit shutout to outlast A's starter Dallas Braden and pick up his second win of the season. In Sunday's series finale, Joel Piniero also pitched a four-hit shutout to lead the Angels to another 4-0 win. And in between those gems, Ervin Santana allowed only two earned runs in six innings during Saturday's 12-3 rout, striking out six along the way.

Now, the team will try to solve its road woes as it embarks on a seven-game road trip this week, with stops in Texas, Chicago and St. Louis. But so far that trip has started with more of the same -- a 4-3 loss to former slugger Vladimir Guerrero and the Texas Rangers on Monday night.

Guerrero went 2-for-4 in his first game against his former squad. On the season, the 35-year-old designated hitter is batting .340 with 31 RBI -- both figures which are among the Major League leaders. Of course, had he put up those kinds of numbers last year in Anaheim, he likely would've received a suitable offer to stay put.

"I wasn't healthy (last year)," Guerrero told The Orange County Register. "Unfortunately, I had no time to work out on my knees and shoulder because I had surgery the year before. It was a struggle."

Without question, if the Angels are to tackle their problems on the road during this trip, the starting rotation must continue to deliver. At the very least, things are headed in the right direction.

Through the first 30 games of the season, the Angels starters had combined for a robust 5.59 ERA. In the 10 games since, they've posted a 2.03 ERA.

All told, the Angels entered Tuesday just 3 1/2 games off the pace in the division.

RANGERS ENJOYING HOME COOKING

Of all the AL West squads, the Angels aren't alone in their struggles on the road (6-11). Oakland is just 5-13 away from home, while the Texas Rangers are 7-11 in opposing ballparks. However, the difference is that Oakland and Texas are both 14-7 at home.

With Monday's 4-3 win over L.A., the Rangers improved to 7-1 at home so far in the month of May. Meanwhile, they've lost their last five road games. Texas will continue its homestand with another tilt against Angels tonight, followed by a two-game set with Baltimore and then a three-game interleague series with the Chicago Cubs this weekend.

Considering none of those teams are above .500, the Rangers could be in line to create some separation in the division if they continue to take care of business at home.

A'S ROTATION FACING A POTENTIALLY HUGE LOSS IN DUCHSCHERER

A's right-hander Justin Duchscherer has seen his promising career become sidetracked by both physical and mental ailments, and the latest setback is threatening his 2010 season.

Duchscherer, who missed all of last season after undergoing elbow surgery and later fighting clinical depression, will find out this week if he needs season-ending hip surgery. In a report on the team's website, Duchscherer said that he has a femoroacetabular impingement, caused by the hip ball and socket rubbing together and creating friction. He'll soon meet with orthopedist Thomas Byrd in Nashville to determine whether he'll need surgery. The recovery timetable for such a procedure is generally 4-6 months.

Duchscherer had been scheduled to return from the disabled list and start Saturday's game against the Angels, but he wound up being a game-time scratch. By Sunday, he was back on the disabled list.

"My goal is to try to do whatever I can so that I can pitch this year, and then at the end of the season have it addressed," Duchscherer said. "But sometimes what we want and what actually happens doesn't coincide."

Through five starts this season, he had gone 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA before his bothersome hip landed him on the DL May 7.

STILL NO SIGNS OF LIFE FOR M'S OFFENSE

By now, it's looking more and more likely that the Seattle Mariners' (14-24) offense may never recover from its early-season slump, which is reaching historic proportions. Seattle continues to rank at the bottom of the league in virtually every offensive category.

Remarkably, the team has been held scoreless during the first three innings of every game since May 1, which is a span of 10 games. Let that stat marinate for a second -- it's basically the equivalent of letting the other team bat and playing only defense until the fourth inning.

So with that, the onus becomes even greater on the starting rotation to put up as many zeroes as possible. Cliff Lee has certainly done his part, having posted a 2.08 ERA with 25 strikeouts and only one walk in his four starts. Doug Fister (3-1, 1.72) and Jason Vargas (3-2, 2.93) have also impressed. Felix Hernandez had allowed 13 runs over his previous two starts, before holding Baltimore to one run over seven innings last Thursday.

The Mariners are hoping he can build on that when he opposes Ben Sheets tonight in Oakland. If not, and the offense continues to stumble, things are bound to get ugly quick in Seattle.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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